Here is what we know:

 

This is not an April Fools joke or hoax.

 

The Conficker worm (also known as Downadup) will begin to poll 500 different domain names every day looking for updates as opposed to the 250 per day it is now looking at.

 

The P2P update functionality reported in the new version, already exists today.

 

SRI as a very nice write up on the new Conficker variant available here

 

In addition f-secure as a very nice Q&A article here  and a nice description of the variant here 

 

Based on these facts and a wealth of other information, we at the Internet Storm Center beleive that April 1st we be more or less, business as usual.

 

This is not to say that we will not be monitoring the situation.

 

We will be watching events very closely, speaking with industry and other contacts (including the Conficker Working Group) as well as monitoring other indications of potential malicious activity (shameless plug for Dshield data) so that we can provide appropriate guidance should it be needed.

 

And as always, should you notice anything unusual on your network (Conficker related or not) feel free to contact us and let us know.

 

Update: The HoneyNet project has a nice write-up on how to detect the presence of Conficker over the network (by scanning). They also offer a script to help with the scanning.